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Global ad market prospects upgraded following social media windfall

Why a second-quarter social media surge has compelled analysts to lift global ad spend forecasts—and what it means for digital marketing’s big players

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The Media Stack
Sep 28, 2025
∙ Paid
  • Growth forecasts for advertising spend have been upgraded this year (+1.2pp to +7.4%) to $1.17trn the first uprating in more than 12 months.

  • Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 55.8% excluding China this year equivalent to $524.4bn rising to 56.2% in 2026.

  • Nine in ten dollars of ad market growth are going to online-only platforms.

  • Global ad market growth is expected to accelerate to 8.1% next year to a total of $1.27trn equivalent to $150 per capita.

  • A rise of 7.1% is predicted in 2027, with a market total of $1.36trn double that of the pandemic hit year of 2020.

WARC Global Ad Forecast Q3 2025 update: Pre-tariff windfall boosts 2025 growth

A new study from WARC, the experts in marketing effectiveness, has found that global advertising spend is now on course to grow 7.4% this year to $1.17trn, a marked upgrade of 1.2 percentage points (pp) from WARC’s June forecast due to an exceptional second quarter performance. A further rise of 8.1% is forecast next yea…

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